Consolidate the skill on mixed cases: quickly identify the bias or fallacy in different situations.
How to solve mixed cases
A recognition algorithm
Next comes a mix of perceptual biases, logical fallacies, probability traps, and manipulation. To make a quick “diagnosis”, keep a short algorithm in mind.
1. Ask: is this a glitch of INTUITION/perception (a bias) or a defect of REASONING (a logical fallacy)?
2. If they're pushing on emotion, urgency, “us versus them” — look for manipulation.
3. If it's about odds, streaks, rare events, percentages — look for a probability trap.
4. If what's attacked is not the argument itself (but the person, a caricature, a different topic) — it's a debating trick.
5. If the estimate is pulled toward the first number, a vivid example, or only confirming evidence — it's anchoring, availability, or confirmation.
You don't have to know the one “correct” name — a case often contains several errors. What matters is seeing WHERE exactly the thinking breaks. Let's go.
Lesson notes
A recognition algorithm
Next comes a mix of perceptual biases, logical fallacies, probability traps, and manipulation. To make a quick “diagnosis”, keep a short algorithm in mind.
1. Ask: is this a glitch of INTUITION/perception (a bias) or a defect of REASONING (a logical fallacy)?
2. If they're pushing on emotion, urgency, “us versus them” — look for manipulation.
3. If it's about odds, streaks, rare events, percentages — look for a probability trap.
4. If what's attacked is not the argument itself (but the person, a caricature, a different topic) — it's a debating trick.
5. If the estimate is pulled toward the first number, a vivid example, or only confirming evidence — it's anchoring, availability, or confirmation.
You don't have to know the one “correct” name — a case often contains several errors. What matters is seeing WHERE exactly the thinking breaks. Let's go.